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EIA如何布局?

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Analysis & Projections

EIA bases its energy forecasts and projections on data from numerous sources, combined with assumptions and mathematical methods. To understand the projections, their proper uses, and their limitations, customers need information EIA如何布局? on the underlying concepts and assumptions. EIA’s new Handbook of Energy EIA如何布局? Modeling Methods explains, in plain language, the processes EIA uses to produce long- and short-term projections of key energy market statistics.

To generate EIA如何布局? energy forecasts and projections, EIA develops and maintains three major modeling systems:

  • The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) generates the annual global energy market projections, currently extending to 2050, published in the International Energy Outlook (IEO).
  • The Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) generates the forecasts EIA publishes in the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The monthly forecasts extend to the end of the calendar year after the publication year.
  • The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) generates the annual U.S. energy market projections, currently extending to 2050, published in EIA如何布局? the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).

Each system is modular, and its components project energy supply, demand, or EIA如何布局? conversion sectors, such as natural gas supply, residential demand, and electricity conversion. The Handbook of Energy Modeling Methods contains a section for each module of each modeling system. Because we are still developing the Handbook, not all sections listed below are currently available.

The plain language module descriptions are in Part A of the Handbook. Part B is a technical appendix that provides in-depth descriptions of the main methods used in the three modeling EIA如何布局? systems.[1]

Handbook of Energy Modeling Methods

Part A. Plain Language Documentation

World Energy Projection System (WEPS)

Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS)

National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

  • Overview (coming)
  • Integrating Module (coming)
  • Emissions Policy Module (coming)
  • Macroeconomic Module (coming)
  • International Module (coming)
  • Commercial Demand (coming)
  • Transportation Demand (coming)
  • Coal Supply (coming)
  • Electric Power (coming)
  • Oil and Gas Supply (coming)
  • Liquid Fuels Market (coming)
  • Renewables Module (coming)

Part B. Technical Appendix

To module regional, national, and global energy markets, EIA draws methods from a variety of disciplines, including statistics, econometrics, EIA如何布局? and operations research. EIA also develops and adapts specialized energy modeling methods.

The STEO modules, along with the energy demand modules of the NEMS and WEPS, rely primarily on statistical modeling methods. In some cases, EIA如何布局? EIA has adapted and extended established methods to accommodate long-term projection. To project prices of hydrocarbon gas liquids, for example, the NEMS uses a multi-process Bayesian dynamic module, EIA如何布局? adapted to incorporate components that rely on judgment-based parameters.

The NEMS and WEPS supply modules rely heavily on econometric and operations research methods, primarily constrained optimization by linear or quadratic programming.

Key Modeling Methods

Footnote
[1] Computer code for the NEMS, WEPS, and STIFS is available online. STIFS EIAEIA如何布局? 如何布局? code appears within the modular User Guides.

EIA如何布局?

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前沿资讯!EIA如何布局? EIA汽油库存骤降,美元疲软,油价自日低反弹逾4%

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(美油小时图)
标准普尔全球商品洞察(S&P Global Commodity Insights)最近发布的普氏(Platts)调查显示,欧佩克+7月原油产量创下了五个月来最大增幅,其中沙特和哈萨克斯坦的产量增幅最大。

EIA如何布局?

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资料来源:高工产研新能源研究所(GGII),Renewable energy world,2022年7月

市场空间规模方面,据GGII统计,2021年全球户用家储装机约合6.4GWh,2022年有望突破15GWh,同比增长134%以上。 乐观估计2025年全球装机规模有望达到100GWh。 增长的驱动力包括: